China - o noua putere mondiala

[ablium_3]

Let me talk a little bit more about European Union again.

European leaders envisioned that they needed to create a unified economy in order to compete economically against US, Soviet Union, and Japan (China was not in the scene yet) and created European Community in 1950s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Community, the predecessor of European Union. So far, the idea worked well. EU has created unified merchandise and labor market. Even the unified financial market with Euro as currency has been created except that Britain, Sweden, and Demark decided to stay aside. Euro is widely seen as challenger to the US dollar. Now the most difficult task facing European unification is the language unification, which Chinese did about 2200 years ago when Qin Dynasty was established. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_Dynasty Earlier effort to unify European language or create world language by Jewish-Polish Dr. Zamenhof has obviously failed. Esperanto http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esperanto was once dismissed and accused by Adolf Hitler as Jewish conspiracy. Is English, or French, or German going to be the official European language of European Union? Are French-speaking people willing to allow English to dominate? Are Romanians ready to give up their mother tongue?

To be continued.

[SF]

Probably English. English will be the next Latin.
I don't see any reason why we can't speak two languages, like canadians speak English and French.

I wouldn't consider abandoning Romanian, and I think it would be a bad ideea not to teach it to our children and our grandchildren.
You see, we think in words, our thoughts are verbal constructions. The language you talk in, expresses your attitude; for example, i am more aggresive when I speak romanian, and I'm more didactic when I speak in english.
There are some thoughts and concepts that can only be expressed in latin languages! Obviously, the more languages you speak fluently, the more complex your thoughts can become

[ablium_3]

Originally Posted by SF

Probably English. English will be the next Latin.
I don't see any reason why we can't speak two languages, like canadians speak English and French.

I am not sure if all Canadians are bilingual. Last time, when I drove across the border between New York State and Quebec, the border control person talked to me in French and I guess that he knew that I could only speak in English.

[SF]

Well gipsies have been speaking at least 2 languages for centuries, why can't we ?

I once saw a gipsy that could speak his own language, romanian, hungarian, english, german, spanish AND italian! That was just amazing.

[ablium_3]

Now let me talk about the Chinese product quality and cost.

The common perceptions about Chinese products are cheap and low quality. I prefer to use word “low-cost” instead of word “cheap” because “low-cost” is a neutral word and “cheap” does contain discriminative meaning. While low-cost is generally true for Chinese products nowadays, low quality is only partially true.

Last time, I wanted to buy a gift that is made in western countries for a newborn baby of a friend of mine, who lived in China. I searched high-end department stores in US, Macy’s, Nordstrom, etc. I could not find anything that I wanted but Made-in-China. No, I am not lying! Today not only the low-end department stores in US are filled with Chinese products but also high-end department stores. Unlike Japanese products, which you can be assured for their quality, Chinese product quality does have a full range, from low to high. This is because Chinese industry infrastructure has not fully upgraded to the level that Japanese have. This is also because the quality control concepts and methodologies have not fully embedded into Chinese engineers' and technicians' minds, unlike their Japanese counterpart. As long as Chinese firm can sell the low quality products, it is not the top urgency to improve their product quality. However, as the domestic and international market getting more competitive, they will be forced to upgrade their production equipment and use quality control system to improve their products quality. They will also learn the know-how of quality control from the multinational companies in China. Products from Taiwan used to be considered to have low quality just a couple of decades ago. (People from Taiwan are all Chinese. Taiwan was separated from Mainland China in 1949 as the consequence of Chinese civil war.) Today Taiwan companies control about 70%-80% world desktop and notebook computers design and manufacturing. All these computer manufacturing factories have been moved to China now. In my interactions with the engineers and technicians in the semiconductor integrated circuits industry and LCD display industry of Taiwan, I can feel that they have the knowledge of quality control as good as their American peers if not better. So when the multinationals corporations come to Romania, they will bring in the know-how for product quality improvement and control methodologies. That should be considered as side-benefit for Romanian employees. The knowledge will be useful when Romanians start their own companies.

Now let me talk about low-cost issue. The western media generally points to the low labor cost and fixed exchange rate as the main cause of Chinese economic success and the competitiveness of Chinese products. It is true that Chinese wage is low, but there are other developing countries that have even much lower wage. So why doesn’t the rapid economic growth occur in other countries? The Chinese currency is not a hard currency, namely not freely convertible. In order to stabilize the Chinese currency, Chinese central bank pegs its currency to the US dollar, which has been practiced for more than 10 years. When most Asian currencies devalue vs. US$ in the Asian financial crisis in 1998, Chinese currency did not devalue. So the peg of Chinese currency to US$ did play some positive role in the stabilization of world financial system. The Chinese banking system is very fragile with a large amount of bad loan to the state-owed companies. They are solving this problem now. Several Chinese banks are inviting the foreign banks to take stake in them in order to improve the management and efficiency. If Chinese currency is allowed float before Chinese bank system is overhauled, there is no guarantee that Chinese currency will appreciate and Chinese currency could even devalue. This is because people will buy US$ rather than hold Chinese currency if they do not have confidence on Chinese banks and currency. Currency exchange rate is a very tricky thing – that is why so many people make money and also so many people lose money in currency trade. Chinese central bank has committed to fully float its currency but the time table has not been given. I have just recently read that US wants Chinese currency to quickly appreciate while EU wants to slowly appreciate – There are some conflict of interest between US an EU here. I have not figured out why yet but I believe it is the effect of Chinese currency appreciation on the exchange rate between Euro and US$.

There are other factors that can be attributed to the low cost of Chinese products, which are often ignored in the mainstream media. I read an article in US magazine Businessweek last year. The author of the article did research on the cost and competitiveness of Chinese products. He found that the scale of factories and densely populated companies that form an efficient supply-chain were also a main reason for the low-cost and competitiveness of Chinese products.

I am sure that you will agree that Chinese companies want to sell their product at higher price and Chinese workers also want to have higher pay. So why doesn’t that occur? That has to blame the global capitalism. Please just take a look what slogan is on the homepage of WalMart, the world largest and most profitable department store chain. http://www.walmart.com/ “Always Lower Prices. Always!” While media is blaming Chinese slave labor and sweat-shop, the Walmart sourcing teams are mercilessly asking its Chinese suppliers to lower, lower, and lower price again.

Lower cost and lower cost again is the game of today’s economy. This game is not only in the low-tech industry. It is also in the high-tech industry where I am working on. Fierce cost reduction is a job of a large part of engineers and other employees in the high-tech industries. Now think the positive side of the cost-driven economy: you probably would not have been able to buy a personal computer if there had not been Chinese who worked like slave to drive the price of PC down. I paid nearly US$4000 for my first PC with 66MHz Pentium processor about 15 years ago. Today you can buy a PC with 3GHz processor at US$400. Thanks to the competition between Intel and AMD and you also have to thank to Chinese who made motherboard, connectors, power supplies, DVD drivers, memory chips, monitor displays, and assembling them together. The PC industry today is running at about 5% gross profit margin, you should know how thin the margin is if you have some business and accounting knowledge.

After you read this post, you probably will realize that your original understanding about these issues is overly simplified.

To be continued.

[danezia]

Yes, China has played a huge part in the whole IT revolution. Most of the computer parts sold today in Romania are manufactured there.

The problem is that Chinese products are associated in today’s Romania market, with the.. ” all for 38000lei shops” (3,8RON / 1,08 Eur / 1,31$), or the counterfeit footwear and clothing. (Really poor quality)

China will have to outgrow this sweat-shop, pirated type of manufacturing, and create some brands of its own.

And “ablium” I have some questions for you. Are we close to the Chinese “growth limit”?

How’s the infrastructure coping with the booming economy? I heard there are serious problems regarding energy supplies, limited transport capacity and of course difficult environmental situations.

China has a history of rural rebellion, is that true today? Is the situation in the county side so bad, as suggested in some western media?

How’s the perception of the CCP, in the population, do people in the countryside still believe in the leadership of the country? Do people believe that corruption has contaminated the highest levels of the leadership?

Maybe you will use them as the starting point of your next post.
Good luck with the whole censorship thing

[else]

Originally Posted by danezia

How’s the infrastructure coping with the booming economy? I heard there are serious problems regarding energy supplies, limited transport capacity and of course difficult environmental situations.

Energy supply: they have concerns about it. Maybe nuclear.
Transport capacity: they have a great road infrastructure
Environment situations: A LOT. All this economic growth has a lot of impact on environment. Romania is green compared with China

[ablium_3]

[warn=Mercutio Benvolio]clone - again[/warn]

[warn=Mercutio Benvolio][/warn]

Originally Posted by danezia

The problem is that Chinese products are associated in today’s Romania market, with the.. ” all for 38000lei shops” (3,8RON / 1,08 Eur / 1,31$), or the counterfeit footwear and clothing. (Really poor quality)

In the US, there are quite a lot of $1 stores. As you can expect, the goods in those $1 store are made in China and have poor quality. However, I have not seen any counterfeit because US has strong control over counterfeit. If Romania does not have strong control over the counterfeit products, next time when you buy those China products, check carefully the product quality by yourself and do not trust the brand name labels. The reason why those low quality product manufacturers can still survive and not bankrupted is because there is still demand. China has millions of poor people who can not afford higher quality products. The US also has a lot of poor people who like to shop in those $1 stores. As I said, Chinese product quality has a full spectrum from low and high. Just be careful when you buy Chinese products especially when you buy from those small shops.

Originally Posted by danezia

China will have to outgrow this sweat-shop, pirated type of manufacturing, and create some brands of its own.

I will give a special post to discuss the Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese business model and strategy in brand when I have time.

Originally Posted by danezia

And “ablium” I have some questions for you. Are we close to the Chinese “growth limit”?

The China is far away from reaching it growth limit. There are a lot of areas that are underdeveloped in particular rural areas and inner land. Even in the relatively developed costal areas, there is still a large space for further development. Its GDP per capita is still very low. The question is whether the natural resource allows it to develop further.

Originally Posted by danezia

How’s the infrastructure coping with the booming economy? I heard there are serious problems regarding energy supplies, limited transport capacity and of course difficult environmental situations.

One of the greatest achievements in the recent Chinese economy is infra-structure construction. That is why Indians who have visited China know that China is now not in the same class with India though Indian who have never visited China won’t believe. When I left China, China even does not have one kilometer of high way (express way). Today, China has high way length only second to US. The total Chinese high way length is now about a half of the US high way length. The ambitious nation-wide high way network similar to that of US is actively under construction. That is why China consumes so much steel and cement. I myself would not have believed those steel and cement statistical number if I had not seen with my eye that everywhere was under construction in China. My home city (a second tier city in China) has virtually rebuilt. I could not find where I was born and where I went to school. In Beijing and some large cities, you often can see car jams in the highway, but other areas seem to be OK. Car ownership has drastically increased in last few years. Energy is going to be a big concern. China is now the second largest oil importer and consumer. That is why China is actively looking for sustainable oil supply worldwide. China has been the world largest coal producer and consumer for many years. China does have a lot coal mine but burning a lot coal has created serious environmental problems. Building factories for producing solar cell panel for electricity generation is the hottest business in China now. The richest man (based on the stock valuation ) in China is a person who started solar cell business about five years ago. http://www.suntech-power.com/en/zlsc.html The company is valued near five billion dollars in New York Stock Exchange though the revenue of the company is still quite low. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=stp Damn, I missed the wagon to get rich. There are about twenty factories in China are under construction or planning to produce solar cells now as the crude oil price rises.

Originally Posted by danezia

China has a history of rural rebellion, is that true today? Is the situation in the county side so bad, as suggested in some western media?

Yes you do know quite a lot of things about China. The rural rebellions were responsible for overthrown many Chinese dynasties in the history. The rural areas also made some improvement in living standard in last two decades, but significantly laging behind cities. If there is any large organized rural rebellion, I am sure that Chinese communist government will oppress them with iron fist. On other hand, the government also did some good things recently. They have waived all kinds of taxes for peasants in order to reduce disparity between city and rural areas. I don’t see any possible imminent nationwide rural rebellions. Small scale riot could occur frequently.

Originally Posted by danezia

How’s the perception of the CCP, in the population, do people in the countryside still believe in the leadership of the country? Do people believe that corruption has contaminated the highest levels of the leadership?

Of course the communism ideology has gone for long time in China though communist is still in power. All Chinese care now is about making money. Current communist in China is a transformed type. In fact, China has conducted democracy in rural area recently, allowing election to generate the governing bodies of villages. Corruption seems to be Chinese culture problem (I hope that it is not a genetic problem so that it still has a hope) rather than communist problem. I lived in Taiwan for a while. Taiwan is considered to be a democratic society but the society is very corrupted comparing to the American society. I believe that Anglo-Saxon culture and legal system does have advantages over others. I haven’t heard anything about the corruption problems or much complaint in the highest levels of the leadership. Maybe it has not been disclosed. I don’t know. I have not talk to the rural people for several decades, so I really don’t know what they are thinking about.

[SF]

I am all for 38.000 shops.

[danezia]

Yes, SF you can buy some interesting stuff in the 1$ shops (usually I go for the things I see also in the normal shops).

And ablium you answer cleared a lot of stuff for me. I always wondered where all that cement and steel went to. But building an economy based on road transport in these times of energy restraints could prove to be a big problem in the future. As for the Chinese leadership, I cannot figure if they are genius or complete morons. Sometimes you would have the idea that they are developing China on a long time scale with a precise objective ahead, but there are times when I wonder if they do it all, just to keep the city folk happy and their pockets filled.

Returning to the national highway network, that is an impressive deed (considering the state of the roads in Romania), and I’m sure air transport and rail will outgrow anything else in the world. But I am still concerned with the whole energy issue. Let’s face it, solar and wind aren’t reasonable choices today (I should now, I’m trying to promote them), but China is investing in large hydro, and nuclear projects. Maybe energy production will keep up with the demand, but the energy rationing seen in Beijing this year kind of spelled the future for me.

But energy and oil aren’t the only resources approaching the collapse limit (in my opinion), as water supplies in the N, are a pretty worrying situation. Beijing is running out of water fast, desertification is a great issue in the North. (Solar dimming resulted from the industrial pollution may be a culprit…, I don’t know yet.., the climate models I use are pretty weak in this subject).

And there is another thing that is scaring the shit out of me, china is running out of food (or at least is losing any food independence), cause you are giving huge amounts of precious farm land (especially in the fertile SE), to urban sprawl and highway (parking space) building.

And the reason I’m interested so much in China and its problems, is because I’m currently writing a SF book, set in China, some 30 years after the buble has burst. (Hopefully that will never happen but is a serious possibility for that). And it is not a gloomy pessimistic book, it’s kind of upbeat optimistic one. Because the China in my book is recovering as it always did in its 4000 years history, and this time is avoiding all the mistakes of the past.
And if there will be a future for real human space exploration and colonization, I’ll bet my money China will be the only nation capable of doing that. (Oops.., kind of spoiled the ending there)

[Mercutio Benvolio]

Sorry guys but, to prevent future cloning from our Chinese special guest, I'll close this topic for a while (until the end of April, when the ban on his main username expires). Please be patient!

[SF]

I will reopen this thread with the latest developments on US-China relations.

As we all know, Hu Jintao visited the US, met with some corporate leaders and with Bush.

His meeting with Bill Gates (whom Hu called "a friend of China") reminded us that computers and giant corporations such as Yahoo and Google are used by China for censorship and arresting their political enemies.

A less known title that should have been covered about the event is: Falun Gong Demonstrator Speaks Out On Chinese Government's Ghoulish Organ Harvesting

You can download the audio recording of Brave Falun Gong Protester Wang Wenyi.

While this might seem as another mad conspiracy theory, mainstream media Confirms Organs Available in China on Demand.

Information about organ harvesting from political prisoners and Falun Gong members are widespread and confirmed by multiple mainstream sources, including last week the esteemed British Transplantation Society, yet the State Department, even contradicting it's own reports, suggested that it is an "urban myth."

The reason why this news is not widespread and we have to read about it on alternative-media websites is because the Pro-Torture, Pro-Tyranny Media Rebuked the Brave Falun Gong Protester.
Apparently she might even be accused of terrorism, even though the system she was protesting against claimed the lives of at least 50 million people, almost as much as the Nazi + the USSR together.

After the incident, people said the american officials felt weak and ashamed about what had happened. Apparently basic human rights (such as the right to free speech) and constitutional values are reasons to be ashamed of.
At least they got to show Hu that censorship works .. even in the land of the free, the brave, etc.
It's no wonder the protester and reporter Alex Jones were quickly "taken away" in a van by "mascatzii"

We all like to see "democracy" and "human rights" at it's best.

[danezia]

Yee!!, My favorite thread is back to life.

And speaking about Hu Jintao visit to the USA, the censorship worked really fine, and for those moments when the protestor spoke on the lawn of the White House, all the TV sets in the land of China went black.

This is why I’m afraid about China’s future, when governments are afraid to listen to their people, you start a chain reaction and you start building a bubble that will burst sometimes in the future.

All that glitzy shiny face China is trying to build today, may crumble as it is being build on the cancer infested corpse of the CCP. I’m afraid of the dark secrets China is hiding. I’m afraid to know the true extent of the costs paid by the ordinary Chinese for this fascinating transformation their country it is going thru. But maybe becoming a superpower doesn’t come cheap, and it is not easy and surely will not come without shameful sins.

Anywhays, I’m really curios if this forum can be accessed now from the mainland. I think not.

P.S. due to the recent premier’s visit to the USA, there is a possibility that China and America will become partners in Space Exploration. Too bad, I was hoping for a new space race.

[SF]

CNN also went blank. I'm talking about international CNN, the one we have here in Romania too.

"On China TV: As Hu was speaking when yells of protesters became audible, the screen went black. When the feed came back the screen once again went black when woman was again heard. During CNN International's post-speech commentary, at mention of south lawn heckler, the screen also went black again. The CNN feed returned when the incident ended."

Quote taken from: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

Speaking about US government censorship, check this out:

Derek Mitchell, a former Pentagon advisor told the Associated Press that the spectacle was an embarrassment because China, "must know that this Bush administration is good at controlling crowds for themselves, and the fact that they couldn't control this is going to play to their worse fears and suspicions about the United States, into mistrust about American intentions toward China."

Image of Chinese protester being censored, literary having her mouth shut.

The only embarrassment is Mitchell - he is an embarrassment to what it means to be an American. How dare this boot-licking pond scum piece of trash equate the image of America with crowd control and the wholesale abolition of free speech? The Bush administration's taste for staged-managed public town hall meetings and "free-speech zones" would sit perfectly with the Chinese dictatorship as shining examples of how to create the false perception that dissent is only confined to the fringes of society.

If the Bush administration was really devoted to encouraging freedom around the world then why is it cosying up to and making apologies for the most mechanized and tyrannical police state on planet earth?

US officials involved in Hu's visit were quoted by Reuters expressing their anger that it took more than two minutes to grab Wenyi and worried about how it would reflect on Hu's team of traveling bottom feeding power prostitutes.

The reaction from Bush was to be expected. His apology was not offered to Falun Gong or the millions of other persecuted and tortured for his failure to demand answers from Hu, but to Hu himself for the unfortunate embarrassment it caused.

--

China si-o depasit toate limitele cu aparatul represiv, iar faza cu comertul cu organe arata in ce conditii traiesc CU ADEVARAT oamenii de acolo. Tzaranii isi pierd gospodariile, confiscate de guvern fara nici o rascumparare si vandute companiilor private. Bineinteles ca sunt proteste, insa sunt inabusite, iar cine are ghinion, se trezeste pe lista de recoltari de organe.

Aia au acolo an de an evenimente tip Tianamen-square, insa media vestica nu raproteaza aproape deloc.

Auzim mereu "ce frumos e in China" "ce boom economic are China", etc, etc. Nici o vorba despre incalcarile flagrante si repetate ale drepturilor omului, despre recoltarile de organe, de reprimarea membrilor sectei Falun Gong, a crestinilor, etc.

[ablium]

SF,
In my childhood, I myself was a victim during culture revolution led by Chinese communist party. I sometimes also criticize Chinese communist government in internet. I am strongly against the Chinese government censorship in internet. I am educated in US and I think that I know the merit of western value. I don’t want to defend Chinese government here, but I want to be fair and royal to the fact.

1. The freedom of speech and freedom of accessing information that Chinese enjoyed today is unprecedented in Chinese history. What I read from Chinese internet site today was absolutely unimaginable 30 years ago. However, when compared to the western society and other countries, China certainly has a long way to go.

2. Epoch Times that you linked is not a mainstream media. It is the publication of Falun Gong, which is financially supported by Taiwan government. I read Epoch Time newspaper many times. It is obvious to me that there are a lot distortion, exaggeration, and fabrication in the articles of Epoch Times. For example, the horrible physical torture shown on the link given by you
http://prisonplanet.com/articles/apr...eprotester.htm is an obvious fabrication if you know how to read Chinese language on the background of the picture – it is a show rather than fact.

3. From the literatures given by Falun Gong organization, it is obvious to me that Falun Gong is a cult , not just physical meditation organization as it often claimed. The brainwash by cult can be a very powerful force. In the Chinese history of the mid of 19th century, there was a Taiping Rebellion which used cult as driving force. I personally believe that the rebellion movement was one of reasons that weakened China in the last 150 years. About the same time of Taiping rebellion war, Japan successfully went through Meiji Restoration which made Japan stronger than China. Falun Gong had millions of members in China, which Chinese communist government sees it as potential threat to the social stability from the lessons of Chinese history. Since the social stability and economic development are the top priorities of the Chinese communist government, it naturally has to crack down the Falun Gong. Personally, I am strongly against the methods used by Chinese government to crack down Falun Gong and I think education should be tirelessly used for dealing this type of problem although it is often not an easy work for handling cult problem.

4. In the recent American history, there were several terrible events with cults including People’s Temple in which 913 people died. More recently, FBI relentlessly sieged Branch Davidian in Waco, Texas, which led to the massacre of 76 people. So the cult problem is not only happening in China but also in USA.

5. In a democratic society, citizens have right of free speech and right to protest, but the rule and order should also be respected. Free speech does not mean you can yell at any occasion and at any time. I think that it was appropriate for US Secret Service to take the protesting lady out from the ceremony of Bush – Hu meeting. I watched the TV too.

Now, please do not accuse me on the Chinese government payroll again.

[SF]

Yes, we all know what cults can do. But between a cult (christianity was a cult 2000 years ago) and a dictatorship, i'll pick the cult people.

Just because Falun Gong is a cult, doesn't excuse the fact that China is responsable for millions of deaths, or for US censoring Wang Wenyi and Alex Jones, for corporations of free media working with the Chinese government to put people into prisons, etc.

The reason they give people internet access is they know that people can't really do anything about overthrowing the government even with all that information.
They just throw people these little bones, so they won't revolt all at once. Some get information, internet, nice cities, a place to work, some get their houses taken away and organs harvested. Divide & conquer.

[ablium]

Originally Posted by SF

Just because Falun Gong is a cult, doesn't excuse the fact that China is responsable for millions of deaths, or for US censoring Wang Wenyi and Alex Jones,

Do you really believe that there are millions of death of Falun Gong members?
There is no censoring in US, just does not allow her to yell in the ceremony.

[SF]

Not millions of dead Falun Gong members, but the overall aftermath of the Chinese dictatorship is that dozens of million chinese lost their life for no reason.
Each year, tianamen-square-style revolts are brutally silenced but the western media fails to report it. It's far more horrible than anything going on in the Middle East.

There is a clear distinction between not allowing someone to disturb a ceremony and considering the incident as an embarrassment because China, "must know that this Bush administration is good at controlling crowds for themselves, and the fact that they couldn't control this is going to play to their worse fears and suspicions about the United States, into mistrust about American intentions toward China."

So US is sorry they can't silence crowds as efficiently as China.
That damn constitution getting in the way!

Did you hear when Bush said he is "the decider" and he "decides what's best" about keeping or not keeping Rumsfeld ? I'm sure he'd like to have a police state like China has.

[ixtl]

Originally Posted by ablium

Do you really believe that there are millions of death of Falun Gong members?
There is no censoring in US, just does not allow her to yell in the ceremony.

Of course there are millions.
Just like there were 60.000 dead at Timisoara in 15-20 December '89.
It's true.
I heard it at the time on Radio Free Europe.

[ablium]

Originally Posted by ixtl

Of course there are millions.
Just like there were 60.000 dead at Timisoara in 15-20 December '89.
It's true.
I heard it at the time on Radio Free Europe.

I thought that pursuing and respecting truth should be the ultimate western value.

Can any body confirm if there was 60,000 death during Romanian revolution in 1989? It is hard for me to believe it and I have never read any of such report in western media.