China - o noua putere mondiala

[ild12]

The argument in favour of tariffs on shoes from Vietnam and China came after the EU's executive found
cheia fiind "the eu's executives found". comisia europeana poate sa gaseasca (si gaseste) dumping oriunde vrea. la fel si usitc. legislatia e conceputa in asa fel incat nu conteaza ce se intampla in realitate... daca vrem sa gasim dumping.. il gasim.

literatura e insa nemiloasa in aceasta problema. sunt zeci de lucrari in care e disecata legislatia antidumping si modul, care uneori frizeaza ridicolul, in care sunt incriminate importuri perfect legitime din punctul asta de vedere.

superhero, deprecierea monedei nationale pentru a creste artificial competitivitatea exporturilor e o practica intalnita in multe tari. in sine nu are nimic in neregula, pentru ca aduce cu sine partea negativa a inhibarii importurilor. ca tara, care nu faci parte dintr-o forma integrativa(gen zona euro - in care se interzice asa ceva din motive evidente), poti practica deprecierii sau aprecieri ale monedei dupa cum iti dicteaza interesele.
aici era vorba insa(cel putin asa s-a inteles din exprimare) de subventii la export. "sumele pe care statul le da producatorilor ca sa exporte produse ieftine". ori asa ceva nu e in regula daca esti in omc.

[low_level_superhero]

ild, nu este asa. In primul rand, China nu are problema importurilor, neavand un consum intern suficient.

In al doilea rand, restul monedelor fiind tranzactionate liber, bancile nationale in restul tarilor actioneaza doar ca si agenti economici, nu ca regulator suprem. RMB nu este tranzactionat liber. Dupa ani de zile de scandaluri, China a facut un pas inainte, dar doar la misto. De la o cota fixa, fixata de ei evident, cu dolarul au trecut la evaluarea pe baza de cos. Numai ca nimeni nu stie ce se afla in cosul ala si ce proportii sunt. Se speculeaza ca e vb de JPY, USD si EUR.

poti practica deprecierii sau aprecieri ale monedei dupa cum iti dicteaza interesele

Cand vb de USD su EUR, o poti face dupa cum iti dicteaza interesele si dupa cum te lasa piata. China nu se afla pe piata.

[ild12]

nu vreau sa intru in problema consumului intern in china pentru ca n-am stat sa adun date legate de aspectul asta.
cresterea economica de acolo reclama insa importuri masive(mai ales resurse naturale, materii prime si tehnologie). efectele pozitive ale reducerii preturilor la astea nu pot fi negate.

exista deci o problema a importurilor, ca de altfel in orice tara. china, ca orice alta tara in care functioneaza regulile economiei de piata(fie ea centralizata sau nu), se lupta in politica monetara cu aceleasi decizii cu doua taisuri.

[ablium]

Originally Posted by ladyatrix

ablium, de ce nu vorbesti despre sumele pe care statul le da producatorilor ca sa exporte produse ieftine (si de cele mai multe ori proaste) la pret de dumping pe piata europeana? asta e economie libera nu? de ce nu se lasa moneda chineaza sa se aprecieze liber? sper ca EU sa ia masuri si sa limiteze invazia asta de plastic ieftin, alimentata (perfect adevarat) de boala omului modern de a cumpara in draci tot felul de chestii inutile.
stii, nu am mari indoieli, china va fi (este deja) o putere si politica planetara e influentata mult de ceea ce face china. paradoxul e ca, desi atat de influenti, chinezii nu isi pot hotara singuri soarta. statul e totalitar si hotaraste pt ei, incepand de la religie, limba, educatie pana la ce numar de copii sa aiba. sunt atat de indoctrinati incat se prea poate ca sistemul sa dureze o lunga perioada de timp. se prea poate. dar istoria zice ca sistemele totalitare cad invariabil. nu cred ca are nimeni motive sa se bucure de aceasta cadere, de aceea cred ca ideea e sa se puna multe pernitze sub fundul chinei, sa se atenueze impactul

In fact, China imposes export tax on textile export in order to reduce textile export. I am not sure whether it is true that Chinese government subsidies the shoe industry. China's footwear industry does not need government's subsidies to be competitive because they have shoe making equipment as advanced as European now and Chinese labor cost is much lower, and often the scales of factories are larger.

Why doesn't China want democracy? Perhaps, this American reporter, who lived in Taiwan and mainland China for many years, can understand why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKFNkHMdRWY

Quote:
"Watch this through the eye of China. China is holding arm on it population as tight as it can, for as long as it can, to get the country as rich as it can, before it becomes pluralistic and inefficient, and difficult to get anything done. Sometimes, they do that through brutal method to keep the country together"

"America is telling China: you must have democracy. They (Chinese) think, wait, your democracy is (that) you find an issue that divides the population, like gay marriage. And then you get the people attacking each other, and you use that to get elected. How is that going to help me?"

[low_level_superhero]

indexmundi.com:

China
Exports $752.2 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Imports $631.8 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

SUA
Exports $927.5 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Imports $1.727 trillion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

EU
Exports $1.318 trillion; note - external exports, excluding intra-EU trade (2004)
Imports $1.402 trillion; note - external imports, excluding intra-EU trade (2004)

[ladyatrix]

ablium, thanks, is very easy to criticise democracy while you beneficiate of it (do u like living in us, dont u?). dont try to induce the ideea that chinese people have chosen to live like that, because they never had the right to choose. i dont think they know how to choose anymore, because this happens when u dont exercise ur democratic rights- see romania after revolution in 89. nice try anyway

ablium, e usor sa critici democratia cand beneficiezi de ea, nu-i asa? e fain sa traiesti in state presupun....nu incerca sa ne faci sa credem ca populatia chinei a ales sa traiasca in totalitarism...ei nu au avut dreptul sa aleaga. nu cred ca mai stiu sa aleaga, pt ca asta se intampla atunci cand nu iti exersezi drepturile democratice- vezi romania dupa revolutia din 89. asta ca sa nu mai vorbim de finalul filmului, apropo de zboruri directe pt taiwan

[ablium]

As I said before, democracy is a Rolex watch. It is a good luxury product for rich men. However, if poor men do not calculate their budget well, buying Rolex could make them bankrupted.

What one wants and what one can affords are not the same thing.

Although China keeps tight political control, the life style has been drastically liberalized. I saw disco first time in my life in Romania twenty seven years ago. At that time, there was no such thing in China, even western music was prohibited. Night life has become very rich now in China, bars, night clubs, Karaokes, even prostitution being everywhere. Here is a Chinese night club music that sounds "western". See if you can enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2JWATnablw

[ixtl]

populatia chinei a ales sa traiasca in totalitarism...ei nu au avut dreptul sa aleaga. nu cred ca mai stiu sa aleaga

Nici nu cred ca au stiut vreodata sa aleaga. Mai ca in povestea Rusia tarista => URSS. dintr-un sistem feudal tzup intr-unul "democrato"-totalitar.
Grea situatie.

[ladyatrix]

ablium,speaking about poor nations, romania is a poor country, but the last thing i want there is a totalitarian regime- i cant find any benefit for my country in it (there are voices in romania to claim that, but luckily they are a minority)
speaking about human beings, what about u, ablium? were u <rich> enough to afford democracy? were u <rich> enough to make a choice? what did u have to trade for ur freedom to choose?what about <poor> relatives back home?)
democracy is not a luxury. what is next step? to say that human rights are not for poor people? shouting that from US is not fair, i think.

ablium, daca vorbim despre natiuni, romania e o tara saraca, dar nu cred ca un regim totalitarist i-ar fi de folos. (sunt persoane care cred asta in romaia, dar din fericire ele reprezinta o minoritate).
daca e sa vorbim despre persoane, ce zici despre tine ablium? ai fost destul de <bogata> sa-ti permiti democratia? ai fost destul de <bogata> ca sa iti permiti o alegere? ce a trebuit sa dai la schimb pt asta?
si cum sta treaba cu rudele <sarace> de acasa?
democratia nu e un lux, care e pasul urmator? sa zici ca drepturile umane sunt un lux? sa afirmi asta din US nu mi se pare corect.

[ablium]

When I arrived in Romania in 1979, Romania was not a poor country, at least, it was much richer than China. Ceausescu screwed up in 1980s. After revolution, Romania did not do very well economically either. I am optimistic about Romania's future and I think Romania will have high-speed development soon after experiencing the pain of abrupt social-economic system change.

My idea was completely pro-west in 1980s. After living for many years in US and understanding how American society works, I now believe that there is an alternative way for social-economic development and optimal social political system could be different at different phase of economic development. China's social system is not suitable for other countries. Similarly, American political system is not suitable for China either, at least for now.
Human right is important for poor people. However, the most important human right is to have decent living standard, not voting right or free speech right in my view. In China now, you are free to speak anything you want in private or even in public as long as you don't have organized activity. The only thing that Chinese government is worrying about is the organized activity against government. In fact, most Chinese people are happy with their government now. Most Chinese even don't care about politics.

A democratic society does not mean that you can choose whatever you want. Democracy is just a method to generate government using the rule in which the minority obeys the majority. However, majority is not always right. Corporation is an institution that is as important as government for most workers. There is no democracy in corporations in all countries. You might wonder that it is unfair too.

[ixtl]

Originally Posted by ladyatrix

...romania e o tara saraca, dar nu cred ca un regim totalitarist i-ar fi de folos. (sunt persoane care cred asta in romaia, dar din fericire ele reprezinta o minoritate).

Coreea de Sud a avut parte de ~20 ani ('60-'70, dar nu numai) de regim totalitar, regim care a reusit sa puna pe picioare economia tarii. Nu inseamna ca e general valabil, insa in anumite situatii este o solutie.

democratia nu e un lux, care e pasul urmator? sa zici ca drepturile umane sunt un lux? sa afirmi asta din US nu mi se pare corect.

Ce naiba e corect pe lumea asta?
Drepturile omului devin o problema pentru cei care ar putea face ceva efectiv atunci cand devin mai importante decat afacerile.
US facea bine mersi afaceri cu RSR prin anii '70, doar pentru ca Ceasca a sarit la gatul URSS in '68. Nu stiu cat le pasa de drepturile omului de-aici.

[ladyatrix]

thank you for your lesson about democracy ablium, whatever u think now u had the chance to see what/how it is, and to judge where u want to stay: democratic world or back to china. i am not saying that democracy is perfect but at least we want to live in the best possible world (which for u, i understand, is us not china)...unless u are a masochist)

maybe the majority of the chinese dont care about politics, but if a few of them dare to have another opinion than the official one, they go to jail.....and even if they are a small minority, they are important. democratic world have rules to protect minorities, in china minority goes in jail.

about corporations i am sorry, i know nothing, are they sine qua non entities for having a good life?

[ablium]

The reason that I stay in US is mainly because US has better living standard. There are plenty of Chinese have returned to China from US after they found a good business opportunity there. There are even plenty of westerner living in China now. Many Koreans and people from Taiwan also live in China. It is really not as bad as you think. I have no political ambition and therefore there is no reason to believe that I will become a masochist in China.

One of the reasons that China can develop so fast in last twenty years is because Chinese government and people are extremely focused in economy. Those unfortunately jailed political dissidents are only a handful of people.

[Kokun]

If Chinese people are extremely focused in the economy. I suppose adjusting one's vision so as to render a clear, distinct image is the way they're doing it. [source]

GDP/capita:

US: $41,800
Japan: $31,500
UK: $30,300
China: $6,800

[ablium]

I said that China was extremly focused on economy for twenty years. The high growth rate has been kept since 1979, which was unprecedented in the world economic history. Before 1979, they were focused in internal political struggle and civil war, so the base was too small to start with. The steel production of China was a half of Japan in 1980 and now China's steel production is about the sum of US+EU+Japan

With its current base, if China can keep current growth rate for another 20 years, it will be a formidable country with GDP (PPP) reaching the sum of USA+EU+Japan, even though GDP/capita is still lower than western countries.

[Kokun]

Sorry, but the growth rate itself is not a proper indicator to point the agent's performance. A, let's say, "high" real GDP is not equivalent with a "high" GDP per capita, as you can notice from the figures. It's called a logical fallacy to say it is. However, although China might continue this performance (big IF, due to inland problems), it won't naturally bring its agents at the same level because growth is in weak regression with the inhabitant.

[ablium]

Do you really think that I am so stupid to confuse total GDP with GDP/capita? Your original question was why the GDP/capita is so low if they are extremely focused on economy. Growth rate is a variable that is more dependent on the intensity of focusing than GDP (the same for GDP/capita) because GDP a strongly history-dependent variable. To give a simplistic math model using calculus while ignoring other variables, growth rate is proportional to the intensity of focusing, while GDP (or GDP/capita) is a time integral of the exponential function of the intensity of focusing. (see attached file)

It is long way to go for whole China to catch up GDP/capita. It will take many decades if not centuries. However, it could be just two or three decades away for coastal part of China with population of several hundreds of millions to catch up the GDP/capita of western countries.

[Kokun]

I think there's probably a confusion. First you say China is a formidable country, where by China I understand the whole/most of it. Whereas afterwards, you reffer to the coastal part/several hundred millions as the one to be extraordinary. The point I was trying to get at is that you make a similarly feature assignment when you report on "Chinese people" and their position regarding economy. This is the reason why I've used GDP per capita and not just GDP: the last indicator reffers to China, not Chinese, if you can spot the difference. Even if the country is doing fine, the first indicator proves that if homogenised, the achievement is not that great at all.

[ablium]

I did not say that China is a formidable country now. I said it will be if it can keep current rate for another twenty years from its current base that is much larger than 20 years ago. I agree with you that it is a big IF. Obviously, there are a lot of constrain conditions coming in now, such as natural resources, polution, etc.

Inland China is also develop vary fast now, close to 10% annually , although the inland is behind coastal area. I showed the link of pictures of Chongqin City in my previous post. It is a inland city. I was shocked when I saw the pictures for the first time a few weeks ago. I nevered expected the city could changed so much.

[Kokun]

So, you're basically saying China isn't a formidable country despite its fast development. Anyway, please clarify what you mean by "China". Is it the coastal part?


Originally Posetd by ablium
-if China can keep current growth rate for another 20 years, it will be a formidable country with GDP (PPP) reaching the sum of USA+EU+Japan
-it is long way to go for whole China to catch up GDP/capita. it will take many decades if not centuries; however, it could be just two or three decades away for coastal part of China with population of several hundreds of millions to catch up the GDP/capita of western countries.