China - o noua putere mondiala

[De Beers]

din cifre par foarte vulnerabili la un embargo total al produselor in vest.


ceea ce nu ar fi imposibil pe urmatorii 30 de ani.

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by Ivan

Momentan China e pe val si are cateva decade in care sa-si acopere "gaurile", in timp ce USA vor incerca sa o impiedice. Sper. Chiar daca dabăliu nu e idealul meu in viata, prefer ca puterea nr.1 sa ramana USA, nu sa devina China. Dar asta e o preferinta personala, neargumentata.

US already sees China as a potential threat. In US, there is a debate whether US should use containment or engagement policy toward China. The current US government policy can be best described as "CONGAGE" (from combination of words CONtainment and enGAGE).

[ardur]

Originally Posted by drkyang

The number of engineering university graduates of China is about three times more than that of US.

Si din primele 20 de universitati din lume sunt mai bine de jumate americane, vreo 2-3 britanice, doua-trei japoneze si restul de pe batranul continent...Asa ca afirmatia de mai sus e complet irelevanta.

In fact, a large number of best engineering brains in Silicon Valley, the world capital of hi-tech, are from China.

In fact, a large number of best engineering brains in Silicon Valley, the world capital of hi-tech, are from [*insert developping country].

There is no need to fear the emergence, more precisely, re-emergence, of China as new economic power.

Well, well, well... Says who?

As matter of fact, China led world in economy and technology from year 500 to year 1500.

Ma faci sa rad.... Ce technologie? Si oare cui i-a pasat in perioada aia? Cred ca nici Chinei si nici restului lumii...

The West led the world only in the last a few centuries.

Yeah, in those that matter.

In the Ceausescu age, Romania and China, the two communist countries, had a quite good economic relation.

No shit! S-a si oglindit in economiile fiecareia...

I noticed that the competitive Chinese textile export to the EU market posts a threat to the Romanian textile export industry. Besides of working harder and being more creative, I do not have any other suggestions.

Am eu: protectionism.

No one can stop the globalization trend.

Asta ramane de vazut...Sa nu fim asa pesimisti

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by barney

poluarea nu, dar sanatatea populatie ar impiedica.

in ce priveste US, in locul tau m-as uita mai atent la UE sau chiar India inainte de china. Ca sa nu mai vb de o comunitate sud-americana. Daca argentina reuseste in sfarsit sa aiba o decada fara faliment si brazilia continua forma buna impreuna cu chile au o situatie muuuuult mai buna decat china.

Yes, pollution is a serious problem in China, which is a price that a country has to pay for industrialization, especially for a late comer. However, the pollution has not reached a level that can seriously affect the health of its citizens as you imagined. In fact, the life expectancy of Chinese is slightly higher than that of Romanian. Please see following site
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/.../2102rank.html.

In my view, there will be three economic superpowers in next 20 years, US, EU, and China. India still has long way to go although it makes quite a lot noise recently. Statistical data show that China is about 5 to 15 times stronger than India in most major industrial indexes. Comparing to China, the only advantage that Indian has is its English language education, which helps Indian to obtain some service jobs from western countries, and which is also one of the reasons that India is ahead of China in software industry. The export value of Indian software industry is peanut comparing to that of the Chinese massive electronic hardware industry. Oh, yes, I forgot to mention Indian's democracy vs. mutated Chinese communism. But, does not democracy necessarily deliver higher efficiency in economic development? The high illiteracy rate in India causes its citizen to have more than one standard deviation lower in average IQ comparing to Chinese. See following link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iq_and_...lth_of_nations

South America countries have a lot of natural resources. But in terms of work ethics and discipline, they are probably not the rival of Chinese.

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by ardur

Si din primele 20 de universitati din lume sunt mai bine de jumate americane, vreo 2-3 britanice, doua-trei japoneze si restul de pe batranul continent...Asa ca afirmatia de mai sus e complet irelevanta.


In fact, a large number of best engineering brains in Silicon Valley, the world capital of hi-tech, are from [*insert developping country].


Well, well, well... Says who?


Ma faci sa rad.... Ce technologie? Si oare cui i-a pasat in perioada aia? Cred ca nici Chinei si nici restului lumii...


Yeah, in those that matter.


No shit! S-a si oglindit in economiile fiecareia...


Am eu: protectionism.


Asta ramane de vazut...Sa nu fim asa pesimisti

I will not involve an argument with you. Instead, I suggest you read more books and travel more.

[low_level_superhero]

Originally Posted by De Beers

din cifre par foarte vulnerabili la un embargo total al produselor in vest.


ceea ce nu ar fi imposibil pe urmatorii 30 de ani.

acum cauta cifrele pentru importuri din China. Si vestul e dependent de China. Parerea mea e ca ar fi imposibil. E doar o parere totusi.

[low_level_superhero]

Originally Posted by drkyang

Yes, pollution is a serious problem in China, which is a price that a country has to pay for industrialization, especially for a late comer. However, the pollution has not reached a level that can seriously affect the health of its citizens as you imagined. In fact, the life expectancy of Chinese is slightly higher than that of Romanian. Please see following site
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/.../2102rank.html.

Not now, but in 20-30 years if it continues as it is. I'm pretty confident that toxic dumping and other undesirable practices are/will not be unknown to Chinese plants.

I would also like to know more about the health system and services in China if you have the time.

About the ethics and discipline of South Americans... I would not judge them so quickly. I've got few SA colleagues and I cannot complain. Also, I wouldn't praise Italians or Spaniards, not even the French on their discipline.

[ardur]

I will not involve an argument with you.

Suit yourself. Credeam ca intri pe un forum tocmai de dragul argumentatiei, nu sa dea toti pe spate cat de multa dreptate ai...Dealtfel in afara de ultimul punct, unde e o chestiune de atitudine si convingere personala, nici nu prea ai pe ce sa-ti bazezi un argument.

Instead, I suggest you read more books and travel more.

Iar cantitatea, batu-o-ar norocu'
I suggest you read better books and learn something from your travels.

[SF]

Rusia si tarile arabe ce or sa faca ? Cu cine se vor "alia" in viitorul razboi rece economic ?

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by barney

Not now, but in 20-30 years if it continues as it is. I'm pretty confident that toxic dumping and other undesirable practices are/will not be unknown to Chinese plants.

I would also like to know more about the health system and services in China if you have the time.

About the ethics and discipline of South Americans... I would not judge them so quickly. I've got few SA colleagues and I cannot complain. Also, I wouldn't praise Italians or Spaniards, not even the French on their discipline.

Your concern is very legitimate. I also wish that the Chinese government spend more effort to take care the pollution issue. Any government has to balance between economical growth and pollution. I remember that US had similar debate on the dilemma although the pollution level in US was much lower.

Regarding the health system, I do not know much because I have left China for more than a quarter of century. All I know is that it is evolving fast and medical care has become unaffordable for some citizens.

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by SF

Rusia si tarile arabe ce or sa faca ? Cu cine se vor "alia" in viitorul razboi rece economic ?

You are over-worried. There will not be a cold economic war. Economic trade is by definition mutual benefitial although one party could gain more than the other party. There will be several free trade zones in near future, such as NAFTA, EU, and East Asia. It does not necessarily has to be confrontational between different trade zones. Arabian could form their own free trade zone but not in the near future. First they have to resolve the dispute between different Arabian countries, which could take decades. Arabian regimes are suspicous to each other with deep division between Shiite and Sunii Muslim. Russian position is tricky and it could just stay alone. Russian still has its own pride of being ex-superpower and it has enomous natural resources and advanced air, space, and military technologies.

[drkyang]

OK. I have changed my mind and I will write a few paragraphs to reply to your post

Originally Posted by ardur

Si din primele 20 de universitati din lume sunt mai bine de jumate americane, vreo 2-3 britanice, doua-trei japoneze si restul de pe batranul continent...Asa ca afirmatia de mai sus e complet irelevanta.

Yes, the most of the best universities are currently from western countries, but time is ticking and world is changing. The high education in China becomes wildly available only in recent years. The number of college students in China exceeds 20 millions now and China now grants more doctor degrees than US. The large number of engineering graduates in China will unquestionably have a profound impact to the technology competition in next few decades. Even US government is deeply concerned about this, and why do you think that it is irrelevant? I got my Ph.D. degree from one of top schools in US and I assume that I have first hand of knowledge about US education system. I am not sure if you have the similar knowledge. At level of high school, Chinese have much better math and science education than Americans, at least in the cities of China. By the way, Romanian high schools (liceu in Romaneste) were quite good too in my impression when I was in Romania. US universities used to have advantage of extensive computer usage, but computers are also widely available now in China. Chinese university students typically have very solid training in science and engineering theories. Chinese students in US graduate school often have top grade in exams. In US, a half of doctor degrees are awarded to students born in foreign countries. I believe that the quality of graduate research work in US is still better than in China currently. Nevertheless, we should remember that nothing is still.

Originally Posted by ardur

In fact, a large number of best engineering brains in Silicon Valley, the world capital of hi-tech, are from [*insert developing country].

Yes, there are a large number of engineering talents in Silicon Valley coming from developing countries such as China and India, I being one of them. There are also some from developed countries such as UK, Germany, France, and Japan. Russians and Romanians are also quite common nowadays. There are overwhelming number of Chinese and Indians simply because these two countries have most talents from their population of over two billions. Human are economic animals. Annual salary of over US$ 100,000 should be attractive to most engineers, whether they are from developing or developed countries. Should that salary be attractive to Romanian engineers? However, there are significant number of Chinese engineers who worked in US have returned to China because they saw some better growth opportunities there.

Originally Posted by ardur

Well, well, well... Says who?

I don't understand what you mean.

Originally Posted by ardur

Ma faci sa rad.... Ce technologie? Si oare cui i-a pasat in perioada aia? Cred ca nici Chinei si nici restului lumii...

Yes, you should laugh, laugh not on what I wrote but on you being unlearned.

The technology leadership of ancient China is widely accepted by western scholars. Ancient Greek and Roman civilization were magnificent, so was Chinese civilization. I love to read books about Greek and Roman civilizations. A difference of the Chinese civilization differs from Greek and Roman civilization is that Chinese civilization was continuous for three thousand years and unified for most of the time on a vast land. The unified written Chinese language has lasted for over two thousands of years, though there are a lot of spoken dialects. The unified language and culture over a vast land gave and are still giving Chinese a lot of advantage. I believe that the similar advantage that US possesses was one of the reasons that lead US to superpower. By contract, Europe consists of many small countries and has many languages, which will be a disadvantage for EU at least for many decades, if not centuries. The unified language and culture allow ancient Chinese empire to have strong central government to conduct huge engineering project such as Great Wall of China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_China with length of 6352km built more than two thousands years ago and less known Grand Canal of China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Canal_of_China with length of 1794 kilometers built in 1400 years ago. The Grand Canal of China is still the longest canal in the world today. The Wall and the Canal are long enough to across the whole Europe. Even by today's standard, they are huge projects. Without engineering knowledge, or called technology, it would be unimaginable for such a scale of projects.

Another example is paper that was invented in China more than two thousand years ago. The use of paper allowed widespread of knowledge through books made from it. The invention of paper is no less significant than invention of computer from historical point of view. Europeans used sheepskin as recording materials; therefore, only extremely small number of people can be literate because sheepskin was so expensive. Europeans learned to use paper only a thousand years later. Some historians speculate that it was introduction of paper caused European advancement in Renaissance. So, should the paper manufacturing considered as a technology? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper#History

The other technologies of ancient Chinese were porcelain and silk. Both porcelain and silk were considered as luxury commodities in Europe and were major international trading commodities once upon a time. Europeans love them and only nobles can afford.
Should knowledge of making porcelain and silk be considered as technology? Read this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porcelain
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk

Do you know that Zheng He fleet was much larger and sailed in Pacific and Indian Ocean many years before Columbus? To build such a large fleet, does it require technology?
Read this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He

Other links that will give you idea of what I am talking about are
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science...ology_in_China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China
http://www.charlesdarwinresearch.org...n_Behavior.pdf

If you don’t bother to read all above, maybe you just need to read what the first sentence is in the CIA (an American government agency) report about China in following link
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/ch.html

All above links are written by westerners and none of them are written by Chinese. So you should feel comfortable enough to read them.

Originally Posted by ardur

Yeah, in those that matter.

When we talk about world economic trend, let us try not to attach emotion generated by the races that we each belong to. Otherwise, it will easily lead to a wrong conclusion. I consider myself as world citizen. I greatly enjoy reading westerners’ books and I do recognize that westerners deserve the credit for the advancement of modern science and technology. I also greatly value the westerners’ contribution to humanity. I personally have a specially favorable and affinitive sentiment towards Romania because I lived in the country for many years. Otherwise, I will not spend many hours in this thread to pick up a language that I have not used for 20 years. Nevertheless, I have to be royal to the truth and I should point out that when Americans talk about westerners, Romania can hardly be included as westerner. I don’t know whether it is because Romania was ruled/influenced by Ottoman Empire for a long period, or because Romania formerly belonged to Soviet bloc, or because Romanian had limited contribution to western civilization, or because of its geographical location.

Originally Posted by ardur

No shit! S-a si oglindit in economiile fiecareia...

Let us leave politics and ideology alone. Economic trades do good works for people no matter whether it was in Ceausescu regime or in current Romania.

Originally Posted by ardur

Am eu: protectionism.

Only losers will embrace protectionism. I think that Romanian people are smart and competent enough to not go this direction. If you are old enough, you should remember that Ceausescu was a regime that largely adopted protectionism and intended to make everything by itself. What was the life then? When China just opened its door in the late 70s of the last century, there was a worry whether China’s national industries were able to survive. Chinese leader courageously opened the door to allow foreign capital and foreign products to enter its market. Now we know that it was a correct decision. The open trade policy causes the consequence that many Chinese industries were wipeout by foreign multinational corporations. For instance, Chinese photographic film industry was virtually wipeout by Kodak. Many of Chinese daily consumer chemical companies are either bankrupted or acquired by P&G or Colgate Palmolive, including the brand name of Chinese toothpaste, Maxim, which was a very welcome product in Romania when I was there. Nevertheless, Chinese made advancement in other arena. They kicked out Japanese color televisions and other electronic products, not by setting trade barriers rather by hard work to give lower price, better quality, and better service. Also by hard working and winning a large sum of foreign direct investment, they made all kind of products that are well sold in US, EU, Japan, and many other countries.

Originally Posted by ardur

Asta ramane de vazut...Sa nu fim asa pesimisti

You are pessimist because you believe that the globalization will bring a disaster to Romania and EU! Fortunately, most economists do not take this view.

[Ivan]

Originally Posted by ardur

Ma faci sa rad.... Ce technologie? Si oare cui i-a pasat in perioada aia? Cred ca nici Chinei si nici restului lumii...

OK, I understand it's not easy for you to "reverse engineer" Romanian language after such a long time. I am willing to make an effort to write in English.
What I think ardur is trying to say is that China had some technologic advance for one and a half millenia but it lacked the expansive spirit. That made all the discoveries of Chinese people remain "unused". If an European country had such a technologic advance, it would have (not so metaphorically speaking) conquered the world. Think only of the gunpowder, which was used for fireworks in China.
The technological knowledge by itself means no big deal.

[ardur]

I’ll write english too, so I don’t have to “switch” so often.

What I wanted to say when I gave you the argument with the top 20 universities, is that currently China has a huge educational/research gap w.rsp. to the West (Romania for that matter, too) and things are gonna stay like that for a while. The arguments with the number of engineers and how good high-school education is have little relevance, since “the edge” in knowledge is not a matter of having a good educational system on average but few best elite institutions. If you say you have a PhD in USA in engineering you should know that research at top level is not a question of having the most engineers but of having the few best people (and loads of money for that matter ). And the USA will make sure it does, at least for a time…

I don't understand what you mean.

You say:

There is no need to fear the emergence, more precisely, re-emergence, of China as new economic power.

I mean: why is there no need to fear? I wouldn’t fear the emergence of Romania as superpower, but of China? Why not? Is it gonna be the bliss for everybody? Like someone said: between USA and China I’ll stick with USA. Contrary to the image you have, of the world as a big happy family, the truth is, there’s fierce competition outthere: economical, but as much as you want to leave it outside, also ideological and military.

Yes, you should laugh, laugh not on what I wrote but on you being unlearned.

Now, let’s not get personal, please
As Ivan pointed out, “technology” in itsself means very little. And much less in such a world like between 500-1500, where there were little to none interactions between China and the West. I knew all the things you enumerated (great patience you have!), the problem (for China) is, the West closed the gap and went way forward when it became important: that is when the two civilizations started to interact and compete.

I consider myself as world citizen.

Well, good to you. As I said earlier I don’t believe in the world as a big happy family, if you do, perhaps you could explain the daily news to me: I see a lot of war going on, much with guns and bombs, much more of another kind.

I have to be royal to the truth and I should point out that when Americans talk about westerners, Romania can hardly be included as westerner. I don’t know whether it is because Romania was ruled/influenced by Ottoman Empire for a long period, or because Romania formerly belonged to Soviet bloc, or because Romanian had limited contribution to western civilization, or because of its geographical location.

I never advocvated that it was.

Let us leave politics and ideology alone. Economic trades do good works for people no matter whether it was in Ceausescu regime or in current Romania.

As I said, weather you want it or not, politics and ideology shape the world in at least as large an extent as economics.

Only losers will embrace protectionism.

Apart from the fact that you’re getting personal again - protectionism and autarchism are not the same. If a state can aford it, it is perfectly justifiable, in order to provide the best possible living standard for its citizens (competition, see? not world brotherhood...). It’s been succesfully practiced throughout history.

You are pessimist because you believe that the globalization will bring a disaster to Romania and EU! Fortunately, most economists do not take this view.

No, I was optimistic about globalization not beeing unavoidable.
Unfortunately, most economists see not beyond their bank account when they judge that.
And it will bring disaster, albeit not economical.

[SF]

Just because you want the world to be a big, happy family, it doesn't mean everyone has to want the same thing, or that everyone wants to be your friend.

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by Ivan

OK, I understand it's not easy for you to "reverse engineer" Romanian language after such a long time. I am willing to make an effort to write in English.
What I think ardur is trying to say is that China had some technologic advance for one and a half millenia but it lacked the expansive spirit. That made all the discoveries of Chinese people remain "unused". If an European country had such a technologic advance, it would have (not so metaphorically speaking) conquered the world. Think only of the gunpowder, which was used for fireworks in China.
The technological knowledge by itself means no big deal.

What you said makes sense. Chinese were less aggressive than Europeans. Unlike the mission of Columbus, the Zheng He fleet was not aimed to conquer the world. Why should they have to conquer the world? The kindom believed that they can make everything by themself, which, of course, turned out to be a false thinking when the westerner's gunboat open the door of China with the gunpowder onced invented in China a few centuries later.

[drkyang]

Originally Posted by ardur

I’ll write english too, so I don’t have to “switch” so often.

What I wanted to say when I gave you the argument with the top 20 universities, is that currently China has a huge educational/research gap w.rsp. to the West (Romania for that matter, too) and things are gonna stay like that for a while. The arguments with the number of engineers and how good high-school education is have little relevance, since “the edge” in knowledge is not a matter of having a good educational system on average but few best elite institutions. If you say you have a PhD in USA in engineering you should know that research at top level is not a question of having the most engineers but of having the few best people (and loads of money for that matter ). And the USA will make sure it does, at least for a time…

I worked in microprocessor technology development. Microprocessor technology should be considered as a one of top technology today. I can tell you that the technology is not dependent on a few geniuses or elites, rather on coordinated work of a large number of engineers and complex supporting infrastructure. For that sake, the number of engineers does matter. The Chinese semiconductor manufacturing technology is currently only one generation behind US, SMIC 90 nanotechnology vs. Intel 65 nanometer technology.
By the way, Universitate din Bucurest should be proud to have a brilliant alumnus, who was in charge of the latest Intel 65 nm technology development and who came from China and was my roommate when I was in Romania. He is also an example of what globalization means - talents are free to move from one country to another.

http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/bios/pbai.htm

[Ivan]

Originally Posted by drkyang

I can tell you that the technology is not dependent on a few geniuses or elites, rather on coordinated work of a large number of engineers and complex supporting infrastructure.

Sure, until the limits of that technology are hit. After that the whole team of engineers will wait for some genius to invent something new.
The new (let's say revolutionary) discoveries will not be made by a large group of good engineers, but by a svery mart guy. I recon.

Now let's go back to our (actually yours ) China.

[drkyang]

[warn=Mercutio Benvolio] clone: ablium => ban
Regulament: 3.e) Nu se accepta clonele. [/warn]

Originally Posted by Ivan

Sure, until the limits of that technology are hit. After that the whole team of engineers will wait for some genius to invent something new.
The new (let's say revolutionary) discoveries will not be made by a large group of good engineers, but by a svery mart guy. I recon.

Now let's go back to our (actually yours ) China.

I was originally thinking to provide some true information about what is going on in today's world economy and explore possible ways for Romanians to participate the new world economy, which was purely driven by my kind sentiment and memory for Romania. But if you people mistakenly think that I am here to fight Romanian or westerners for Chinese, then I am better not waste my time and out from this thread as I still have a lot of works to do.

Anyway, I still wish that Romanian people can actively participate global economy with wisdom and courage. After all, I am proud graduate of Universitate din Bucuresti.

This is my last post. Goodbye and good luck to all.

[low_level_superhero]

Originally Posted by Ivan

Sure, until the limits of that technology are hit. After that the whole team of engineers will wait for some genius to invent something new.
The new (let's say revolutionary) discoveries will not be made by a large group of good engineers, but by a svery mart guy. I recon.

Now let's go back to our (actually yours ) China.

Ivan, I really think you are making a mistake. All the corporate advancements are made through an innovative corporate culture. I am not trying to minimize the importance of engineers, but some of the most interesting technologies were put to rest because they were considered "distruptive technologies". Take Microsoft vs. Internet for example. I will get back later with a bigger and more argumanted post.