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Thread: Omul si computerul

  1. Back To Top | #421
    Moderator Ivan's Avatar
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    Ca si pana acum. Lumea voteaza fara probleme politicieni dovediti ca au mintit sau furat.

  2. Back To Top | #422
    Un interviu cu Demis Hassabis (DeepMind):

    http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tren...assabis?page=1


    Q: Is intelligence computable? In other words, is it possible to compute everything that is going on in the brain?

    A: Yeah, well this is an open research question, but the current -- my current -- betting is probably yes, because there doesn't seem to be anything non-computable in the brain.
    Q: You have recently talked about how, today, working on AI has become very fashionable. And I know that many businesses claim that they are using AI without elaborating on what it really is, right?

    A: Yes, that's very true.

    Q: In part to lure investors, I guess.

    A: Yes, exactly.

    Q: So, are we in kind of an AI bubble?

    A: Yeah.

    Q: How much are you concerned about this?

    A: I don't like it. We're definitely in an AI bubble because, exactly as you say, every company is saying they're using AI, when some of them don't even know what that means.

    It's kind of funny, like a marketing term. It's like the marketing department saying, "We have AI." What does it mean?

    So I think maybe about 90% of the stuff out there is like that, which is a lot.

    But, because it works with investors and other things, everybody is saying this now, right?

    I think that's pretty bad, and I think there'll be a lot of disappointment. So, for some people, it might look like ... you know, AI has been through hype cycles before. Right?

    They call it "AI winter." For some people, they're viewing this as the same as what happened the last two times, that we're in another bubble, and then there will be a winter.

    It's funny. I think both things are true. We are in a bubble, but it's real this time. It's just we're not as far as the bubble thinks we are, and lots of people are just using it as a buzzword. But I really believe this time that we're on the right ladder. That's what I mean by "the right ladder." I think there won't be another winter.
    That 1930s gum you like is going to come back in style!

  3. Back To Top | #423
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  4. Back To Top | #424
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    E din ce in ce mai interesant :

    - "I have exposure to the very cutting edge AI, and I think people should be really concerned about it..."
    - "AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization."
    - "By the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it’ll be too late."

    N-or sa reguleze nimic dincolo de povesti (in cazul AI), pentru ca fiecare vrea sa aiba cea mai tare jucarie.

    In schimb se arata ceva care pana la urma ar putea regula activitatea umana, adevaratul pericol, de fapt...

  5. Back To Top | #425
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    O problema majora pe care o vad sunt idiotii care in curand vor sari de cur in sus cu "drepturile" AI si "ca si ei e fiinte si oameni" ...
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  6. Back To Top | #426
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    "Idiotii" aia sunt chiar in Parlamentul UE care a ridicat deja problema inca din ianuarie.

    "Resolution to grant robots legal status in order to hold them ‘responsible for acts or omissions’ passed by European Parliament legal affairs committee."
    "MEPs have voted to propose granting legal status to robots, categorising them as “electronic persons” and warning that new legislation is needed to focus on how the machines can be held responsible for their “acts or omissions”."

  7. Back To Top | #427
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  8. Back To Top | #428
    Moderator Ivan's Avatar
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    ^ o masura similara cu distrugerea razboaielor de tesut in secolul 18.

  9. Back To Top | #429
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan View Post
    ^ o masura similara cu distrugerea razboaielor de tesut in secolul 18.
    erau și alea automatizate și nu necesitau forța de munca umană?

    ca exemplu de protecția pieței muncii aici e încă interzis sa alimentezi singur la benzinării.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  10. Back To Top | #430
    Registered User RAN's Avatar
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    Glumesti?

  11. Back To Top | #431
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    nu, mai ales ca războiul de țesut e prezent in cultura romană de prin antichitate ...

    daca se referă la războiul de țesut mecanizat/industrial e alta mâncare de peste și tot nu mi se pare echivalenta situația.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  12. Back To Top | #432
    Registered User RAN's Avatar
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    Evident ca la ala automatizat se refera. Nu e echivalenta, e similara...

  13. Back To Top | #433
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    mdea, nici similară nu e.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  14. Back To Top | #434
    Quote Originally Posted by AStateOfMind View Post
    erau și alea automatizate și nu necesitau forța de munca umană?
    la prima intrebare raspunsul e da, este tot automatizare.

    la a doua raspunsul e nu, dar pentru ca productivitatea a crescut cu pana la 500% in urma aparitiei razboaielor de tesut, pentru o productie similara aveai brusc nevoie de mult mai putin oameni.

    India nu rezolva nimic, oricum nu ei erau in prima linie a tehnologiei self-driving. Nici cand vor zburda masini autonome pe sosele in 2/3 din glob nu se va incumeta vreo firma sa le introduca in India. La ce infrastructura si obiceiuri de trafic au, nici macar AI-ul ala de SF de care vorbeste Musk nu ar face fata. Daca ar face fata, stim ca the end is near!
    That 1930s gum you like is going to come back in style!

  15. Back To Top | #435
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelgänger View Post
    la prima intrebare raspunsul e da, este tot automatizare.
    NU daca nu e vb de cel mecanizat.

    Quote Originally Posted by doppelgänger View Post
    la a doua raspunsul e nu, dar pentru ca productivitatea a crescut cu pana la 500% in urma aparitiei razboaielor de tesut, pentru o productie similara aveai brusc nevoie de mult mai putin oameni.
    Diferenta e ca acea crestere in productivitate e necesara, suntem prea multi. oricum important a fost si este volumul productiei, nu e deloc similara cu inlocuirea unei masini cu sofer cu una fara sofer.

    Si apropo, impactul la momentul respectiv asupra fortei de munca (si nu numai) a fost destul de serios daca nu ma insel ...

    Quote Originally Posted by doppelgänger View Post
    India nu rezolva nimic, oricum nu ei erau in prima linie a tehnologiei self-driving. Nici cand vor zburda masini autonome pe sosele in 2/3 din glob nu se va incumeta vreo firma sa le introduca in India. La ce infrastructura si obiceiuri de trafic au, nici macar AI-ul ala de SF de care vorbeste Musk nu ar face fata. Daca ar face fata, stim ca the end is near!
    Corect.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  16. Back To Top | #436
    Moderator Ivan's Avatar
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    Man, e vorba de fix acelasi lucru, incercari jenante de a intarzia evolutia tehnologica pentru a proteja lumea veche.

  17. Back To Top | #437
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    Nu sunt sigur daca se vrea protejarea unei lumi vechi sau a unor indivizi care isi vor pierde joburile.

    Bineinteles cand nu te afecteaza direct nu prea te intereseaza, e simplu sa o dai cu "progres", "lume noua". Da, probabil ca peste 20-50 ani nu va mai fi o problema, dar momentan sa arunci cateva sute de mii sau milioane de oameni in somaj probabil ca nu e chiar "lumea noua" la care te gandesti.

    Da, acum poti face misto de ce s-a intamplat in sec 18 la revolutia industriala dar cei din sec 18 si afectati direct de situatie te asigur ca nu le ardea de facut misto.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

  18. Back To Top | #438
    Moderator Ivan's Avatar
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    Cred ca amesteci idei generale cu experiente personale, nu se intelege prea bine ce vrei sa comunici.

    In primul rand trebuie sa decizi daca vorbim despre acelasi lucru, pare ca ti se schimba perceptia intre posturi. Imi pare rau daca ai ramas somer din cauza revolutiei industriale, dar daca recitesti atent posturile mele nu vei regasi niciun misto legat de somaj.

    Am spus doar ca gasesc inutil sa ridici ziduri locale impotriva mersului lumii. Chiar si interdictia de a alimenta singur* este ridicola.


    *nu inteleg insa cum se explica filmuletele "hazlii" de pe yt unde tot felul de berbeci pleaca cu furtunul de la pompa inca infipt in rezervor.

  19. Back To Top | #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by AStateOfMind View Post
    Nu sunt sigur daca se vrea protejarea unei lumi vechi sau a unor indivizi care isi vor pierde joburile.
    Nici una, nici alta. Deocamdata se vrea protejarea celor cu venituri de la medie in sus si stabilitatea sociala. Aspectele politice inca prevaleaza celorlalte.
    ....................
    Parerea mea e ca deocamdata se trage de timp. Robotii si softurile sunt intr-o faza de dezvoltare accelerata, dar totusi incipienta (relativ la cata forta de munca ar putea inlocui). E nevoie de cativa ani pana cand unele tari vor introduce AI pe scara larga si restul lumii se va panica observand consecintele de pe piata fortei de munca. Lumea trebuie sa simta si sa constientizeze securea din spatele capului inainte de a se putea lua masuri radicale.

  20. Back To Top | #440
    Paranoia is natural AStateOfMind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan View Post
    In primul rand trebuie sa decizi daca vorbim despre acelasi lucru, pare ca ti se schimba perceptia intre posturi. Imi pare rau daca ai ramas somer din cauza revolutiei industriale, dar daca recitesti atent posturile mele nu vei regasi niciun misto legat de somaj.
    NU ma afecteaza dar pot empatiza cu problemele altora, nu consider ca daca nu ma atinge pe mine e o problema irelevanta.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan View Post
    Am spus doar ca gasesc inutil sa ridici ziduri locale impotriva mersului lumii.
    le ridici temporar pana cand gasesti o rezolvare la problemele care pot aparea ca urmare a "mersului lumii". Iar cei afectati de masura in mod sigur nu o vor gasi "inutila".

    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan View Post
    Chiar si interdictia de a alimenta singur* este ridicola.
    Este dar a salvat cateva mii de jocuri sau mai multe, fara a ridica pretul combustibilului.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan View Post
    *nu inteleg insa cum se explica filmuletele "hazlii" de pe yt unde tot felul de berbeci pleaca cu furtunul de la pompa inca infipt in rezervor.
    Pt ca interdictia e locala, in OR (si poate cateva alte state) - daca ma duc in WA (cateva mile mai la nord) interdictia nu mai este valabila.


    You've been warned: Futurama - Bender's Dream (Kill All Humans) - YouTube
    Last edited by AStateOfMind; 31-07-2017 at 21:54.
    "Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”

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